A Friday the 13th to Forget

Did I miss anything?

Hey folks! I just got back from a little trip to Europe! Anything interesting happen while I was away?

Like anyone else paying attention, I’ve been regularly checking my internal doomsday readings for signs of imminent apocalypse, but for a week in Portugal, I disconnected as much as possible.

When riots broke out in the streets of Los Angeles, I shrugged, assuming it was just the culmination of a media charade between Donald Trump and Gavin Newsom. I’m all for a good protest, but I don’t think we’re gonna hashtag our way to peace and prosperity. Especially not when our elected leaders like to play chicken with our civil rights.

When Israel began its bombing campaign against Iran on Friday, June 13th, it was hard to ignore the ominous date.

But my 12 year old Euro-American nephew assured me it was okay because we weren’t in America and Friday the 13th has no power outside the States; so, I decided I’d suspend my disbelief with him until returning home on Sunday. Whatever reality would be there to greet me was no excuse not to enjoy exploring centuries-old castles and watching Star Wars with family.

If you’ve had your head under a rock, Israel and Iran haven’t been getting along so well for the past handful of decades. The fierce geopolitical rivals have been trading rockets, missiles, blood and treasure for the last few generations. With Iran inching its way towards nuclear-statehood and Israel embroiled in a genocide inducing proxy war, perhaps a direct confrontation was inevitable.

But I would’ve preferred to delay it until after I’ve gotten my retirement in order.

Alas, the world doesn’t yet revolve entirely around me, and Israel decided it would be a good time to destabilize the shit out of the Iranian regime with a series of bombings and assassinations.

If you were really trying not to pay attention, you could probably have ignored things at this point. Israel drops a lot of bombs and kills a lot of people. “Operation Rising Lion” is catchy, but “No Kings” and “Taco Tuesday” are catchier for those of us who want to protest and/or party our way towards the Third World War.

A business-related maelstrom I hope to write about at a later date kept me on a light news diet, but when news broke that President Trump had given the green light for “Operation Midnight Hammer” to drop a bunch of bunker busting bombs on three key Iranian nuclear facilities, including the Fordow Uranian Enrichment Facility, it was impossible not to splurge.

According to many patriotically inclined Americans, only our B-2 stealth bombers could deliver a payload large enough to penetrate the 250+ feet of Zagreb Mountains that protected the enrichment site.

President Trump declared the operation a yuge success, and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Dan Cain detailed the complex mission with the restrained glee of someone who finally got to drop that 30 ton bomb he got for Christmas.

Cain emphasized that the Pentagon doesn’t believe Iran was able to do so much as fire a single shot at the B-2s and their escorts, underscoring how advanced the American military industrial complex is said to be.

My first thought was this was somewhat inevitable. Global tensions around Iran’s nuclear capabilities have been simmering for a few presidential terms now, and it was only a matter of time before someone with their finger on the trigger would want to intimidate our adversaries with a nice bit of precision bombing.

In fact, I tried convinced myself and my friends - our summer solstice party so rudely interrupted - this could end up being a very good thing

Of course I would prefer America doesn’t get involved in foreign conflicts, but if we can win this war quickly, it could do a lot to stabilize the global order.

That is, of course, if America and Israel win the war quickly. If the IRGC has enough missiles and fight left in it, Americans in the region will be targeted. If Iran’s navy successfully closes the Strait of Hormuz, either gas prices will soar spurring on inflation, or the war will spread to the seas.

Or, more likely, both.

The risks of a prolonged and spreading conflict seem obvious, and though I don’t personally think this escalation is the spark for a global conflict that sets the world alight, it certainly isn’t going to help calm things down.

In the scenario that the Ayatollah and the Revolutionary Guard are ousted and dismantled, there is the ever-present risk of a fight over the power vacuum. And whether or not American, Israeli, or any other foreign troops are required to keep the peace on the ground in Iran, the chaos of that power struggle looms large with unknown amounts of highly enriched uranium up for grabs, to say nothing of other weaponry and tools of destruction.

There is, perhaps, a tightrope to be walked, if a neutered Islamic Republic is willing to negotiate without much escalation. Or perhaps the Iranian people will welcome back an exiled Crown Prince who promises to usher in a new era of democracy for a nation that once freed Israel’s ancestors from captivity.

While humanity does seem to keep tiptoeing its way towards nuclear armed conflict, eliminating another country’s ability to bring such weapons to bear is a good thing, despite the historical irony of America’s nonproliferation policy.

However, it is yet to be seen if America’s latest display of military might will intimidate our fractious world into relative order, or if it will continue the unwinding of our current geopolitical paradigm.

Here’s to hoping last Friday the 13th will not be remembered long.

Also,

Thanks.